“The future of humanity is going to bifurcate in two directions: Either it’s going to become multi planetary, or it’s going to remain confined to one planet and eventually there’s going to be an extinction event” – Elon Musk
We have moved from Agriculture Age (18th century) -> Industrial Age (19th century) -> Information Age (20th century) . Now moving to Conceptual Age (21st century).
In every revolution/age, major inventions and break through took place at peak level. As a side effect, some things we damage then we tend to come back or reverse them. But you can never come back to where we have started or restore fully.
Let me give an example. If we take Agriculture area, we started eating pesticide based food then now genetically modified food. At the peak of advancements, we realize that “oh we are eating mostly chemicals”. Then we try to take U turn and come back to “natural/organic” food. But you can never come back where we have started – pure natural foods. We can reduce the damage little bit and come back may be 1/4 th. Like trying to eat little bit of organic food wherever some possibility. This is what I am call as “1/4th U Turn”.
Same thing happened with Industrial revolution. We have damaged whole planet. Now we are talking about “Green”. Now you re-read the above quote from Elon Musk. What is he saying?. We have done all destruction on planet Earth and now go and start fresh on some other planet ;).
One set of humans will go on inventing breakthrough for their own kick (called some times as “Purpose”) and the other small set will try to “save/restore” things (another form of kick). So this games goes on and on.
Point is very simple. This pattern (1/4th U Turn) goes on even in current and next Age. Part and parcel of human mind and nature. You can choose to be part of “invention/creation” or “restoring/saving” group.
Future will be really exciting in both cases.
REAL DEMOCRACY IS ON THE WAY
We can always debate side effects of any advancements. That is human brain start looking at negative things. Lets start look all the great things are happening with Technology Innovations. And many things we may not be appreciating as much as they deserve.
Imagine a world without Technology advancements. Now think how many centuries it would have taken to really achieve what we are able to today. Today any one from the planet can come up with a breakthrough idea. You can connect to any one including top people in each field. You don’t need any appointment to connect to them. If you have really great idea and implementation capability then any one will welcome you without looking into your caste or background. You can voice your opinion much easily. This is my definition of democracy.
For the developing countries Technology is a real blessing. Technology is narrowing the gap the between most developed countries and developing countries. Corruption, caste & muscle based politics and all kinds of inequality elimination is only possible through Technology. It would be impossible through humans to do this irrespective of how many great leaders would have produced. Technology does not have bias. Open source is open source for all. It does not respond based on person and it treats all same.
Real democracy is coming ….on the way…
COST OF LIVING WILL GO DOWN
If you are from India and reading the heading then you will be thinking what nonsense is this. Just now GST has come and you are started paying more already. GST is also expected to bring down the cost/tax eventually. Topic is not about GST or India alone.
This is about how technology innovations will transform and redefine many industries globally. Some counties may see this transformation little later but eventually most countries (developed and developing counties for sure) will experience this.
While the technology is exponentially growing and the impacted areas of cost is going down every year. Most of the areas costs are going down – Transportation, Healthcare, Energy, Telecommunications, Hardware, Software, Entertainment, etc. Eventually costs of living will come down.
Uber reduced cost of transportation. iTunes revolutionized music industry. Airbnb redifined hotel industry. 100s of such examples. Each one of such innovations are indirectly trying to bring down the cost and increase the quality. This is still beginning I would say. With advancements in AI, VR, Robotics, 3D printing, etc you will experience the world with much cheaper cost. Not just you also billions of people across the globe ( real equality and democracy).
Fast forward 30-40 yrs (may be sooner). All these will be real and most importantly cheaper.
GOVERNMENTS WILL PROVIDE FOR BASIC LIVING
If Technology is continue to disrupt all industries and reduce drastically human dependency then what will happen to jobs?. For next 20-30 years people most people may still be able to have full time or part time jobs. It won’t be easy but with some struggle people will manage. Many will have to re-skill and move to new areas or change industries, etc. The question is after 30-40 yrs what will happen?
This is more applicable for next and future generations. If the population is going to continue with the current rate and technology is going to exponentially change then for sure there will not be a full time job for every one to do. And also, economies will move from pyramid structure to diamond structure. That means most people (almost 80-85%) will be in the middle class and very few at the top (these people mostly will hold majority of wealth) and few at bottom at poor level. This is already happening if you look at the businesses. There is only one Google, one Amazon, One Uber, One Facebook, etc. There are not much 2nd,3rd and 4th players.
So eventually governments will have to intervene to re-structure the economic model and start providing the basic living for the people who do not have jobs. This is already there in some countries but very low percent. But this will increase very much in the coming decades.
Don’t believe this?. Already some countries like Canada are piloting this concept. This concept is called UBI (Universal Basic Income). Go and search on google and you will realize.
With cost of living expected to go down, not much of full time jobs and UBI gift, may be people will have more free time and fun. Lets wish good life for next generation.
GOVERNMENTS WILL PROVIDE FOR BASIC LIVING
If Technology is continue to disrupt all industries and reduce drastically human dependency then what will happen to jobs?. For next 20-30 years people most people may still be able to have full time or part time jobs. It won’t be easy but with some struggle people will manage. Many will have to re-skill and move to new areas or change industries, etc. The question is after 30-40 yrs what will happen?
This is more applicable for next and future generations. If the population is going to continue with the current rate and technology is going to exponentially change then for sure there will not be a full time job for every one to do. And also, economies will move from pyramid structure to diamond structure. That means most people (almost 80-85%) will be in the middle class and very few at the top (these people mostly will hold majority of wealth) and few at bottom at poor level. This is already happening if you look at the businesses. There is only one Google, one Amazon, One Uber, One Facebook, etc. There are not much 2nd,3rd and 4th players.
So eventually governments will have to intervene to re-structure the economic model and start providing the basic living for the people who do not have jobs. This is already there in some countries but very low percent. But this will increase very much in the coming decades.
Don’t believe this?. Already some countries like Canada are piloting this concept. This concept is called UBI (Universal Basic Income). Go and search on google and you will realize.
With cost of living expected to go down, not much of full time jobs and UBI gift, may be people will have more free time and fun. Lets wish good life for next generation.
REAL E-DUCATION
Our education system is still outdated and not very productive. Education being one of the key basis for any development it definitely needs more attention.Great thanks to technology. It is going to transform all together the way next generation kids will get educated.
Here are 5 major shifts I visualize.
- Focus on Creativity & Problem Solving: 21st century is Conceptual age (About creating, inventing and Innovating) .We no longer need to study what Mr X has done in 1920 or what happened in world war II. You can get this information by single search. Any thing you can get from internet is not really required to remembered or learnt. Hence focus will be and has to be on creativity & problem solving
- Most Learning will be Online: You can already see this paradigm shift. This will go to an extent where there won’t be a lot of need to go to physical school and human teaching. Yes, this will happen. May be in 50 yrs but will happen
- Personality/Custom based Learning: Unlike today’s system where everyone is expected to learn the same thing learning curriculum would be based on your cognitive mapping, strengths and interests. You no longer need to waste time in learning things which are not going to be useful to you
- Less no of Years of Education: You will not be required to spend 16 years or 20 years of education years. This will be too much of time in future. Next generations not only will learn fast but will learn few focused areas so no need to spend more years in education. They will quickly get into on job activity
- Cheaper Education costs and learn from world BEST: Once the need for physical schools, teachers reduces and more e-learning comes in place then automatically costs will come down. Most importantly you can learn from the best of best people online – Coursera, Khan academy are few example.
Future of education will be really amazing. And real and meaningful learning…
LONGER LIFE & PREDICTING DEATH
According to a latest study, life expectancy will exceed 85 by 2030 in many countries. This is mainly possible due to medical &technology advancements. And, some scientists are even trying to push this beyond and aspiring to make immortality possible.
I think this will be most boring and hang around with old skin ;). Even for this some solutions will come. People normally try to give up and become some what good as they age and come closer to the the death. But if immortality is going to be a reality then people will hold on to things much longer. Anyway, we can’t stop the change. Every thing has to go through U-Turn effect.
In the near term, at least you can live little longer and most importantly we can predict our health and life. Machines will be able to read much deeper insights with in our body and using the predictive analytics and we can almost predict the death (of course natural) as well. With the predictive health it will give you an early indications on what is at risk so that you take action appropriately.
Read the below article if you are interested to know more on this topic.
https://singularityhub.com/2017/06/30/artificial-intelligence-predicts-death-to-help-us-live-longer/
CONNECTED DEVICES TO CONNECTED BRAINS
If you are involved with technology or have a futuristic mind then you can fairly understand how future will be. We can understand about Artificial Intelligence, IOT, VR, AR and other areas. IOT/Connected devices seem to a big disruptive thing many people are talking about now a days.
All the current expected disruptions will definitely create very very exciting things. But I think this is still just beginning. Why? I think we still have not cracked THE biggest asset – Brain/Mind. Once we are able to decode the data inside the brain (emotions, memories and beliefs ) and connect them to the other brains then the real fun starts. This means we will be moving from “Internet” to “Brain-Net”. We can indirectly achieve what we esoterically as “collective consciousness”. Technology can make this possible (this may not be the preferred way). Once this happens there will be huge revolution is the way communication happens between people. Basically, if your spouse or boss says they can’t understand you then you can ask them to “step into your brain” ( no more step into your shoes). At some point, you will be able to control the emotions you want to experience and delete the memories you would like to. This can solve major mental related problems by upgrading your brain with quality data (memories, emotions, etc)
Now all these may look like some sci fi movie stuff but at some point in time this will become reality.
Physicist Dr. Michio Kaku is a big believer in this Brian-Net concept. Watch the below video if you are interested in this topic.
http://edition.cnn.com/videos/bestoftv/2014/12/23/qmb-kaku-futurist.cnn
TOP FUTURISTS WHO ARE PREDICTING THE FUTURE
Are you fascinated about Future possibilities?. Keen to learn about some of the top Futurists in the world?
Here are top 7 Futurists.
- Dr. Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at the City University of New York and author of “The Future of the Mind:”
- Dr. Ray Kurzweil, inventor, pioneering computer scientist, and director of engineering at Google
- Dr. Anne Lise Kjaer, founder of London-based trend forecasting agency Kjaer Global
- Dr. James Canton, CEO of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures and author of “Future Smart: Managing the Game-Changing Trends that will Transform Your World:”
- Jason Silva, host of National Geographic Channel’s “Brain Games”
- Dr. Amy Zalman, CEO & president of the World Future Society:
- Mark Stevenson, author of “An Optimist’s Tour of the Future:”
I would add Elon Musk in special list both as Futurist, Visionary and Execution person.
And here are some very good websites on Future.
- https://futurism.com/
- http://www.kurzweilai.net/
- https://singularityhub.com/
- http://bigthink.com/
Enjoy learning about Future and start predicting to enhance your Futuristic talent.
ON GOING (NO CONCLUSION)
” I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” – Thomas Jefferson
Normally, I write a small conclusion when ending the series. Unlike other topics there is no conclusion for Future. Future is always going to evolve continuously and it is an on going affair.
As I said earlier, we can always look at any change from positive or negative perspectives. But actually it doesn’t matter whether you like change or not. Some where some one is going to invent the next thing and it will propel dozen other new innovations. Every area of innovations will peak and then take a small U Turn (1/4th U Turn) . And one fine day we will start living in other planets and repeat the same process. And it will keep on going. From ethical point of view there will be always good and bad. You can never eliminate bad part. You can only reduce percentage. Now we have normal thefts and in the future we will cyber thefts and mind thefts. Or some thing else.
This is all fine. What is the bottom line?. Simple..as we have been living since caveman days with hope we continue to live much bigger hope (at least for next generations). The faster we adopt to change and appreciate the future the better it will be for you. We can choose to look at all negative sides or focus on positive side of future. Choice is yours !!.
YK
1 Comment
Excellent write up, combined with facts.
Made it simple at the end with an action change is inevitable and embrace it.